Predictability is a Superpower
What is productivity?
Most good books on productivity eventually say something like, “Productivity is accomplishing what you intended to do.”
Ultimately, the skill I find myself wanting more and more is the ability to predict how long a task will take.
Think of all the advantages:
- You would never overcommit yourself.
- You would feel balanced and calm.
- You could plan for breaks without guilt.
- You would be reliable for those around you.
An Imperfect World
The truth is we don’t live in the type of world that is predictable. Your manager, co-worker, or client may suddenly take up half your day. And sometimes work just breaks down in unexpected ways. Your program crashes, a video recording gets corrupted, a code regression takes your whole day.
When planning my day, I try to plan for the unexpected.
Creativity in a Box
Truthfully, not everything should be put into a box. Creative tasks need room to breathe and grow and change as you work through them.
Some tasks should have a vague start and end time so that you can give your mind time to work on them and allow yourself to chase rabbit trails.
The Problem with Task Managers
I’m as guilty as anyone else at working on my task management system more than working on my tasks. I’ve used OmniFocus for more than 15 years and I’ve dabbled with almost every other task management system there is.
As I’m sitting here, Jack, my AI assistant, runs a lot of my task management through an Obsidian Vault that syncs with GitHub. Over-complicate much?
A Simple System
I’ve devised a very simple system for each day that helps me get better at predicting how long tasks will take. At the beginning of your day, plan until about 1 p.m on a sheet of paper (writing it down feels like a commitment).
Every block of time has three columns:
- Task: a short description
- Estimated time: the time I expect it to take
- Actual time: the actual time it took me
How do you estimate time?
- Plan only about 60% of your day (hence the 1 p.m. cutoff).
- Plan for the unexpected in your time blocks.
Tactically, I block time by starting with the ideal scenario (if everything goes perfectly) and double that time for the unexpected. If the task involves another person (like a phone call with a person), I triple the time. For example, if I’m estimating a task that will take 30 minutes, I’ll plan for 60 minutes. If the task involves another person, I’ll plan for 90 minutes.
If you are going to serve real people and be flexible to their real needs, you can’t expect them to fit into a designated time slot or observe your carefully-curated schedule.
As I progress through my day, I update the actual time column with the time it took to complete the task. Here’s an example.
| Task | Estimated time | Actual Time |
|---|---|---|
| Task 1 | 90 minutes | 65 minutes |
| Task 2 | 1 hour | 1.5 hours |
| Task 3 | 3 hours | 3.5 hours |
Because I only plan until about 1 p.m., it gives me flexibility to adjust as things move around in my day. And if I finish early, I get to start on the things for the next day.
Note: A few years ago, I realized that I was only ever going to get a certain number of tasks done each day. When I packed my day full, inevitably some task would get pushed to the next day. If, however, I underestimated what I could get done in a day, I could start on "tomorrow's tasks". I don't think this helps you get more or less done each day, but it convinces your brain that you're ahead rather than behind. It's a dumb mind trick, but it works on me.
Every day, my goal is to match or beat my estimated time with my actual time. Having done this now for several years, I’ve gotten fairly good at predicting how long tasks will take, even anticipating when there will be bumps in the road on a given task.
Ultimately, this predictability is a superpower.
Some weeks I’m very bad at it, but the habit helps me keep my commitments, leave margin for myself, and serve those around me in a way that honors their time.
Productivity feels like satisfaction when reality matches your intention.